5 (Faulty) Assumptions That Will Further Shrink Your Enrollment in the Year Ahead

March 7, 2023

Is the world changing?


Nope. It has changed. 


Leading a campus (or a district of campuses) in the new world of work has been more than complex. 


What enhances the struggle is when your assumptions about the future are false. 


Recently, Ms. Becky (my wife) and I embarked on a winter hike that we planned would take a few hours in our home state of Minnesota. The snow and ice on the trail were a bit more than planned, causing us to cancel our dinner plans with friends that evening. 

puzzle pieces

The hike was beautiful, but our delay was discouraging. 


Isn’t it better to know it will be difficult and find it a bit easier than to think things will be easy and find them super challenging?


What’s true in life is especially true in leadership.


Over the past 18 months, I have encountered more than a few delusional leaders working from conventional strategies for bolstering campus enrollment that, in all likelihood, won’t pan out.


Your performance will grow if you get your assumptions dialed in and work your plan with focus. 


Here are the five (faulty) assumptions that will further shrink your enrollment in the year ahead.


1. What worked before is going to work again.


A crisis is both a revealer and an accelerator.


The crisis of the last few years has accomplished two things across every campus. It’s revealed what’s working and what isn’t. And it’s sped up the consequences of both.


While a few systems have seen rapid growth during the crisis, most are recovering. Just last week, I found myself in the middle of an executive leadership conversation hinging on the question, “should we host a town hall meeting to say that we are up in enrollment (over last year) when in reality, we are still 18% down since 2020.”


On the one hand, it is
right to celebrate gains to foster hope, but on the other hand, campus leaders must be clear in “right-sizing” their budgets without confusing their people. 


How can you be up in enrollment and cutting programs right?


Because crisis both reveals and accelerates, perhaps you’re seeing today what your campus would have looked like in 2030 without a healthy course correction. 


As sobering as that might be, perhaps it’s a gift.


If the old
 approach allowed for Lucky Growth (we built it, and they will come), the accelerated decline could be a gift to help you see that a new Leading Growth approach is needed.


If the old approach isn’t replicating growth, trying harder in that space won’t bring different results, no matter how hard you grind.


And if the old model wasn’t working before, it will probably not work again, no matter how sincere you are, how loudly you command your people, or how desperate you feel.


The time has finally come for campus leaders to double down on the mission and experiment with the methods.


2. The building will be the center of education.


At the heart of every declining system is the over-reliance on buildings as the focal point of all learning engagement.


What if the future of transforming lives has left the building? 


By this, I don’t mean that campus sites across the country should abandon gathering. The future of education is (and will always be) in
community. 


Decentralized, distributed, and small group is the future of learning in the new world. 


Somehow, education fell into the assumption that for quality engagement to occur, it was fixed within the construct of a campus (with a mascot), four walls to a classroom, and two covers to a book. 


And that is observed by cramming humans into auditoriums, rows, and other settings where dialogue isn’t really encouraged.


You may still be shocked and frustrated by the surprisingly low return-to-campus attendance trends this semester.


What if the people you’re looking for haven’t left? What if they’ve just left your building? 

 

Plug your nose because this truth stinks, for sure. Many of your learners are gone for good. 


No questions. No arguing. 


Those missing may not be leaving the educational pipeline altogether. They may not even be leaving your system.


They’re just not returning to YOUR building, and perhaps they won’t even after the pandemic is a distant memory.


I’m not saying this is good (I don’t like it either). I am saying it’s real. 


Leaders who cooperate with reality do far better than those who fall victim (and complain about it).


Here’s what’s critical. Your mission isn’t dead. 

  • Your commitment to academic excellence and student success.
  • Your dedication to equity and inclusion.
  • Your partnership with families and the community.
  • Your emphasis on professional development and ongoing learning.
  • Your commitment to accountability and transparency.


But your methods might be on life support.


What if the BUILDING as a method is getting in the way of thriving in delivering your mission?



At the end of 2023, what would it feel like to be ahead again?


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Worst of all, other people — other tasks, jobs, and projects — will continue to hijack your life.


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3. You don’t need to take virtual learning that seriously.


The rallying cry – “EVERYONE GET BACK TO THE BUILDING” that so many college presidents and district superintendents have shouted over the last year still surprises me.


Add to that the consistent and critical dismissal of virtual learning as a quality option for mission delivery. I’m not talking about your website, live stream, and social media upgrades. I’m referring to the notion that your online presence is likely underfunded and relegated to the middle of someone’s job description.


Too many campus sites have a Web1 presence as Web2 peaks, and Web3 emerges, yet still wonder why they can’t grow enrollment.


For a primer on Web3 and the “metaverse” in education, I highly recommend reading
What Does Web3 in Education mean for the future of teaching and learning. 


Most campuses spend 90-98% of their learning budget on in-person education in an era where fewer people attend in-person school than ever.


Please hear me out. Each campus MUST do in-person learning exceptionally well.


But you are losing significant traction when your system spends a tiny fraction of its time and resources serving and prospecting your current and future learners in the virtual economy. 


The good news is that sometimes online engagement will lead to in-person. 


Sometimes it doesn’t.


The point is that everyone you want to reach IS online. If you can’t engage people in cyberspace, you miss them and all the opportunity that comes with it.


4. The future will be linear.


There was a season in leadership from the 1980s through the mid-2010s where leadership was more straightforward because progress (in both technology and society) was linear.


There were a few recessions and setbacks along the way, but it was usually only a matter of time until things started moving forward again in a predictable fashion. While that wasn’t true in every organization, it was culturally true across education.


The mid-2010s ushered in the first waves of instability (division, deeper partisanship, rage, and the severe questioning of institutions), all serving as a massive wave disrupting the patterns we knew and had come to trust. 


The pandemic and ensuing global crisis accelerated the destabilization even further.


Leaders of geopolitical thought predict that the future will be unpredictable (how’s that for a prediction?). 


The future will be less linear, unstable, and complex than anything ANYONE has led before. 


This is unchartered territory. Thinking the future will be linear and predictable only sets you and your team up for more heartbreak and anger.


You know the stoic line, “the secret to happiness is low expectations?”


Having lower expectations for predictability and embracing the probability of instability will better prepare you to lead your team and system successfully. 


Agile leaders and teams thrive in periods of rapid change, and if you’re ready for it, you can be one of those leaders and one of those systems.


For more on this, you may want to take another look at my post,
4 Big Signs to Guarantee your Performance Won’t Turn Around.


5.
Running hard like your hair is on fire is the only way to fix this.


Many leaders have been running so hard for so long, grinding under the false hope that the next quarter/new semester/new year will bring new hope.


Has it?


This leaves you with the question, “how long can I run at this pace?”


For most leaders, the meter expired months or years ago. And that leaves you exhausted, looking ahead at an impossible future.


Exhaustion is the gateway to terrible decision-making, moral failure, burnout, ineffectiveness, and chronic underperformance. 


Why? 


Running at an unsustainable pace will leave you too tired to think about innovation and without the energy to dare, risk, or execute.


This has to be the season for you to focus—to find a sustainable pace.


It’s no shock that one of the first casualties of working too hard is a loss of creativity. As 
Adam Grant has pointed out, great ideas take time and margin to develop and often involve experimentation and failure.


And most importantly, creativity is linked to slowing down and creating space for the creative process to ferment and grow (Adam’s 
2016 TED talk would be good therapy right now, by the way).


If finding a sustainable pace has been elusive for you (as it has for most leaders), I’d love to help you find one.
Book a Free Virtual Coffee Here for a pep talk and a free consultation for effectively managing your meeting triage.


Running hard indefinitely isn’t the way to fix a problem—it’s actually the way to break you.




Identify and Break Through Your Growth Barriers.


Enroll Your Team in the Lead Team Institute 


  • What used to work isn’t working anymore. What do I do next? 
  • Why don’t we see results, even when we’re putting in the effort? 
  • What’s the right decision for the future when everything is so uncertain? 


The Institute
is for you if you are a Campus President, District Administrator, or a Public Sector Executive Director looking to Optimize Higher Team Performance. 


Escape the struggle today by joining a vibrant cohort where leaders share strategies and ideas to help each other Reclaim Momentum. 

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Ready to change the trajectory of your campus?


Set up a
Virtual Coffee HERE to learn more. 



More Blog Articles

By HPG Info April 29, 2025
33% of Your Revenue is Walking Out the Door Revenue Impact : A 33% student attrition rate within three years represents millions in lost tuition revenue and potential alumni giving. Competitive Advantage : Institutions prioritizing engagement over enrollment see 23% higher completion rates and improved rankings Resource Efficiency : Retaining existing students costs 3- 5x less than recruiting new ones Reputational ROI : Student engagement directly correlates with institutional reputation metrics and positive word-of-mouth The Enrollment vs. Engagement Challenge Campus executive teams across the country obsess over one metric above all others: enrollment numbers. They celebrate when headcounts rise and panic when they fall. But here's the fiscal reality that most leaders won't acknowledge: getting students in the door is not the real financial challenge in education today. The actual crisis? Students are leaving at alarming rates, and institutional leaders would rather invest in another expensive CRM system than confront the uncomfortable truth about why. Each 1% improvement in retention translates to approximately $300,000 to $500,000 in preserved revenue for a mid-sized institution. The Data Behind the Dropout Crisis The numbers tell a devastating story that translates directly to institutional financial health: According to the American Institutes for Research, on average, 23% of students don't return for their sophomore year, and an additional 10% leave before their junior year, resulting in a staggering 33% dropout rate over the first three years. The U.S. News data reveals that "in many cases, 1 in 3 first-year students or more won't make it back for their second year" with reasons ranging "from family problems and loneliness to academic struggles and a lack of money." Even at community colleges, which have seen improvements, retention rates hover around 55%, meaning nearly half of students drop out after their first year. For institutional advancement professionals, this represents not just lost tuition but also diminished lifetime giving potential, as non-completers are 76% less likely to become donors. The Uber Education: Real-World Impact on Institutional Reputation Let me share something that happens with alarming regularity. In my work, I travel to dozens of campuses each week to serve their leaders and teams. During these travels, I spend considerable time in the back of Uber and Lyft rides. I've developed a habit of asking drivers if they know much about the campus I'm visiting. Consistently—and disturbingly—drivers tell me they used to attend that very institution. When I ask why they left, about half cite straightforward economic reasons: "I couldn't afford it." But the other half? Their responses represent walking negative advertisements for your institution: "I felt invisible there." "I was just a number." "The faculty didn't treat me with respect." "Nobody seemed to care if I showed up or not." What's most telling? These former students are literally driving others to the very campuses they abandoned. In marketing terms, this represents thousands of negative brand impressions that no social media campaign can overcome. The Structural Challenge: Institutional Inertia Why do institutions continue pouring resources into enrollment while neglecting retention? The answer lies in structural challenges and institutional inertia that affect even the most well-intentioned campus leaders. The enrollment-fixated culture persists because it aligns with traditional budget cycles and reporting structures. Enrollment creates immediate revenue and impressive statistics for board meetings. It doesn't require the cross-departmental coordination and long-term metrics that effective engagement strategies demand. When retention initiatives require fundamental reassessment of how institutions operate—from teaching methods to student support systems—organizational inertia often redirects focus back to the familiar territory of enrollment metrics. The emotional and financial investment in "round-the-clock caffeine-infused enrollment hustlers" represents a deeply ingrained institutional tradition that, while understandable, is increasingly at odds with financial sustainability in today's competitive landscape. The Empathetic Reality Check for Campus Professionals Let's acknowledge a brutal truth: the structural challenges that create this situation are deeply entrenched and not easily dismantled. Decades of institutional history, financial models, and academic traditions have developed systems that naturally resist transformation. This isn't about assigning blame to campus leaders. Those I serve genuinely care about student success but find themselves constrained by systems that measure and reward the wrong things. The enrollment-obsessed culture didn't develop overnight, and it won't be overturned with a single initiative or program. What's encouraging, however, is that professionals who successfully lead engagement transformations report accelerated career advancement and professional recognition, as their institutions outperform peers on key metrics that boards and accreditors increasingly prioritize. A Practical 3-Step Path Forward: Proven Approaches for Immediate Implementation 90-Day Quick Start Timeline Days 1-30: Audit existing engagement data sources and establish baseline metrics Days 31-60: Implement pilot engagement initiatives in the highest-attrition departments Days 61-90: Present initial findings to leadership with ROI projections 1. Establish Engagement as a Core Metric with Proven ROI Real-world proof it works: Georgia State University transformed its retention rates by analyzing over 800 student data points to identify engagement risks early, helping more than 2,000 students stay on track annually. This initiative generated an additional $3 million in tuition revenue and significantly enhanced the institution's rankings. 5 Engagement KPIs That Predict Retention with 90% Accuracy: Learning management system activity (frequency and duration) Assignment completion rates Faculty interaction frequency Student service utilization Co-curricular participation When restaurant chains receive poor customer satisfaction scores, they often overhaul their menus and retrain their staff. When airlines receive low Net Promoter Scores, executives face increased scrutiny from the board. Yet when students express disengagement through course evaluations or by leaving, we rarely see comparable institutional accountability. Implementing these metrics has provided advancement opportunities for forward-thinking professionals across institutions. 2. Realign Resources and Rewards for Career Advancement Real-world proof it works: Purdue University's "Back a Boiler" income share agreement program directly aligns institutional financial incentives with student success—the university only succeeds when graduates succeed. Meanwhile, Arizona State University ties executive compensation partly to student progression rates, and leaders who implemented these approaches have seen significant professional advancement. The evidence shows that professionals who champion engagement-centered initiatives are 40% more likely to advance to senior leadership positions within five years, as these initiatives deliver measurable institutional improvements that boards recognize and reward. Executives who have implemented retention-based compensation models report that these approaches not only improve student outcomes but also enhance departmental collaboration and innovation, key skills that accelerate professional development. 3. Create Institutional Accountability for Engagement Excellence Real-world proof it works: Amarillo College restructured its leadership around a "No Excuses" poverty initiative, making student success the primary institutional accountability metric. This resulted in a tripling of graduation rates within five years. This initiative earned the college the prestigious Aspen Rising Star award, garnering national recognition for the leadership team. Valencia College's similar approach helped them win the Aspen Prize for Community College Excellence, significantly enhancing the professional profiles of key administrators. Institutions that implement engagement accountability frameworks see an average 12% improvement in key performance indicators within two years, creating tangible success metrics for professionals who champion these approaches. The Transformative Opportunity for Institutional Advancement The institutions consistently gaining market share in today's competitive higher education landscape share one characteristic: they've shifted from an enrollment-fixated culture to one that values engagement equally, unlocking substantial revenue preservation and enhancement. This isn't just about boosting retention rates; it's also about enhancing overall customer experience. It's about strengthening institutional financial sustainability while fulfilling the core mission of higher education: transforming students' lives through meaningful learning experiences. The most successful campus professionals of the next decade will be those who recognize that engagement metrics aren't just nice-to-have supplements to enrollment data—they're essential predictors of institutional viability. It's not just good educational practice—it's a sound business strategy for the increasingly competitive education industry. Implementation Resources 5 Key Engagement Metrics to Start Tracking Tomorrow:  Student-faculty interaction frequency Learning management system engagement Participation in high-impact practices Sense of belonging indicators Academic performance progression What will you do differently next quarter? References: American Institutes for Research. (2023). The Overlooked Challenge of Second- to Third-Year Retention. Assunção, H., et al. (2020). University Student Engagement Inventory (USEI): Transcultural validity evidence across four continents. Frontiers in Psychology, 10, 1–12. Kahu, E. R. (2013). Framing student engagement in higher education. Studies in Higher Education, 38(5), 758-773. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2024). Persistence and Retention. U.S. News & World Report. (2025). University Rankings by First-Year Retention Rate.
By HPG Info April 23, 2025
Nine Standard Practices To Get You Started FOREWORD: THE LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT REALITY Let's face it: leadership development is a staple in every educational institution. While research suggests most programs produce minimal lasting impact despite their popularity, we continue to create them because, well, that's what everyone does. Organizations spend billions of dollars annually on leadership development with minimal return, yet the tradition persists. Every year, universities, colleges, and school districts introduce new leadership academies that appear well in promotional materials and annual reports. If you're looking to join this well-established tradition, this field guide provides a straightforward overview of the standard practices that will ensure your leadership program aligns comfortably within the realm of the average. THE AVERAGE LEADERSHIP ACADEMY EXPERIENCE: 9 STANDARD PRACTICES 1. Individual Skills Focus Most leadership programs naturally focus on individual skill-building rather than addressing systems or context. This is completely normal - after all, it's easier to talk about communication styles than to untangle complex institutional power dynamics. The Standard Approach : Develop a curriculum centered on generic leadership competencies that can be applied anywhere. Don't worry about your institution's unique challenges - keeping things general ensures participants receive the same experience they could get from any leadership book or YouTube video. 2. Presentations Over Practice While research suggests that most leadership development occurs through experience, the standard approach is to schedule numerous presentations and lectures. This is much easier to organize than messy real-world leadership challenges. The Standard Approach : Fill your program calendar with inspirational speakers, PowerPoint presentations, and group discussions. This comfortable format is familiar to everyone and requires minimal preparation beyond booking meeting rooms and warming the coffee. 3. Simple Satisfaction Surveys (Quick and Easy) Like most leadership programs, you'll want to distribute feedback forms at the end of each session. These provide immediate gratification and impressive quotes for your next brochure. The Standard Approach : Measure success through attendance rates and end-of-program surveys that ask participants if they "enjoyed" the experience. No need for complicated assessments of behavioral change - those are difficult and might not show the results you want. 4. Convenient Participant Selection Most programs select participants based on who is available, who has been waiting the longest, or who has the most seniority. This approach is standard practice and avoids difficult conversations about readiness or potential. The Standard Approach : Choose participants through a combination of self-nomination, seniority, and those who need a professional development opportunity for their annual review. This approach requires minimal effort and ensures a smooth workflow. 5. Event-Based Programming Despite evidence that leadership development is ongoing, most programs are designed as finite experiences with clear start and end dates. This is completely normal and aligns with academic calendars and budget cycles. The Standard Approach : Design your program as a series of scheduled workshops, culminating in a graduation ceremony. Once participants receive their certificates, your tour of duty is complete. 6. Comprehensive Content Coverage Typical leadership programs pride themselves on covering every timely leadership topic. The Standard Approach : Pack your program with numerous topics, theories, and guest speakers. The impressive stack of handouts and resources participants take home will feel substantial, even if they never refer to them again. 7. Universal Leadership Principles Most leadership programs rely on generic content that can be applied anywhere. This approach is common because it's much easier than customizing material for specific institutional challenges. The Standard Approach : Build your curriculum around timeless leadership concepts found in bestselling books. There's no need to address your institution's specific challenges - leadership is leadership, right? 8. Minimal Executive Involvement Leadership programs often operate with limited participation from senior leaders, typically relying on ceremonial appearances. This is normal - executives have many demands on their time. The Standard Approach : Invite senior leaders to make brief welcoming comments or perhaps deliver a session, but don't expect ongoing involvement. A quick photo opportunity at the graduation ceremony is the standard level of engagement. 9. Aspirational Standards It's perfectly normal to teach leadership approaches that don't align with how things actually work at your institution. Most programs promote idealized leadership that bears little resemblance to the messy reality of organizational life. The Standard Approach : Build your curriculum around leadership ideals that sound great in theory, even if they contradict how decisions are actually made at your institution. This gap between theory and practice is a familiar feature of most leadership development programs. THE ALTERNATIVE: BETTER PRACTICES OF LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT If you're actually interested in creating a leadership development initiative that delivers lasting impact, research suggests focusing on: Systems-Based Approaches that address organizational context alongside individual skills (Galli & Müller-Stewens, 2012) Experience-Driven Learning centered on real challenges rather than abstract concepts (McCall, 2010) Ongoing Development with coaching and application opportunities (Petrie, 2014) Meaningful Assessment that measures behavioral change and organizational impact (Avolio et al., 2010) Senior Leader Involvement that models and reinforces desired leadership behaviors (Gurdjian et al., 2014) A FINAL WORD: REAL LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE We understand the challenges you face. Building effective leadership capacity while managing day-to-day operations is genuinely difficult. You're balancing competing priorities, limited resources, and increasing demands. Creating leadership development that produces lasting change requires thought, care, and expertise. The truth is that developing transformative leadership capacity is possible, but it doesn't happen through shortcuts or by following popular yet ineffective formulas. After working with hundreds of campus and district leaders across the country, we've developed a proven framework that transforms not just individual leaders but entire institutional cultures. JOIN THE LEADERSHIP & CULTURE {INSTITUTE} Develop the foundation and framework necessary to Become, Build, Lead, and MULTIPLY modern campus leadership development that works to scale and sustain across your entire organization. The Difference: Your people become YOUR GUIDES. Our 12-Month Leadership Experience includes: 1:1 Discovery and Natural Leadership Profile sessions for each leader Monthly world-class workshops (on-site or virtual) Comprehensive digital resource library Executive performance coaching Lead Team 360™ assessment Teams consistently achieve: Enhanced communication and trust Better team collaboration Stronger organizational alignment Restored team capacity Improved decision-making Reduced operational friction Intended results Don't settle for leadership development that merely checks a box when you can build genuine leadership capacity that transforms your institution. Ready to elevate your team's performance? Visit https://www.higherperformancegroup.com/lci to learn more about the LEADERSHIP & CULTURE {INSTITUTE}. The path to extraordinary leadership begins with understanding what really works. REFERENCES  Avolio, B. J., Avey, J. B., & Quisenberry, D. (2010). Estimating return on leadership development investment. The Leadership Quarterly, 21(4), 633-644. Beer, M., Finnström, M., & Schrader, D. (2016). Why leadership training fails—and what to do about it. Harvard Business Review, 94(10), 50-57. Conger, J. A., & Benjamin, B. (1999). Building leaders: How successful companies develop the next generation. Jossey-Bass. Day, D. V. (2000). Leadership development: A review in context. The Leadership Quarterly, 11(4), 581-613. Day, D. V., Fleenor, J. W., Atwater, L. E., Sturm, R. E., & McKee, R. A. (2014). Advances in leader and leadership development: A review of 25 years of research and theory. The Leadership Quarterly, 25(1), 63-82. DeRue, D. S., & Myers, C. G. (2014). Leadership development: A review and agenda for future research. In D. V. Day (Ed.), The Oxford handbook of leadership and organizations (pp. 832-855). Oxford University Press. Galli, E. B., & Müller-Stewens, G. (2012). How to build social capital with leadership development: Lessons from an explorative case study of a multibusiness firm. The Leadership Quarterly, 23(1), 176-201. Gurdjian, P., Halbeisen, T., & Lane, K. (2014). Why leadership-development programs fail. McKinsey Quarterly, 1(1), 121-126. Hess, E. D., & Ludwig, K. (2017). Humility is the new smart: Rethinking human excellence in the smart machine age. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. Kouzes, J. M., & Posner, B. Z. (2017). The leadership challenge: How to make extraordinary things happen in organizations (6th ed.). Wiley. McCall, M. W. (2010). Recasting leadership development. Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 3(1), 3-19. Petrie, N. (2014). Future trends in leadership development. Center for Creative Leadership.
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