Fear Isn’t Keeping Them Out, It’s Indifference (Why Campus Attendance Has Plummeted)

March 8, 2022

It’s an almost universal phenomenon.

Whether you barely closed in-person learning for the pandemic, campus leaders are facing the same reality: A raft of learners aren’t coming back to your campuses. In-person, that is.


The question is, why?


The answer has puzzled me for a while now. It got harder to answer because even formerly growing campus sites are facing the same challenges. After shutting down to in-person gatherings for even a few months, 20-30% of their students disappeared. In fact, of the 2.6 million students who started college in fall 2019, 26.1 percent, or roughly 679,000, didn’t come back the next year, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. 


I know of a few schools that have surged past their pre-COVID attendance numbers. But for every campus that has seen that favor, there are 100 that haven’t.


What’s going on?


At first, we surmised that it was the lack of a vaccine that created the lag. Nope.


Then it was the variants, but even relief from Delta and now Omicron still hasn’t led to a surge that erases the loss.


Then we wondered if people were just generally fearful.


Nix that theory too. Many people who can’t find their way back to in-person learning have no trouble finding their way to Target, an NBA game, dinner out, a tropical vacation, family reunions, or a Foo Fighters concert.


What gives?


The Emotion Isn’t Fear…It’s Indifference

So, this is a theory here (I’m not a social researcher or psychologist), but I offer it in the hope that it’s helpful. After all, you can’t battle a force you don’t understand and can’t name.


What I’m picking up from my hard conversations with campus executives who have opened their experience management channels is the fact that the exodus isn’t driven by fear…it’s indifference.


Their students know where their local campus is. They didn’t forget. They have been poked and lured enough by your array of free re-engagement events available to them.


After the disruption that happened during COVID, they simply grew indifferent to in-person learning.


Indifference is defined as a lack of interest, concern, sympathy, or unimportance. 


They don’t hate in-person learning; there’s just no surge of strong emotions. It’s simply not as important.


It’s like they’ve assessed their life, reconsidered what matters most, and decided that attending traditional school just wasn’t that important in the end.


Which is discouraging, I know.


But hang on, there’s a lesson here for all of us.


You might be thinking to yourself exactly what a district leader expressed to me in our conversation last week. She said, “well Joe, you don’t read my inbox and you’re not in my conversations. People hated what I did or didn’t do about politics, racial justice, masks, vaccines, or politics and they left mad. Flippin' mad.”


For sure all those things are factors. But I’m not sure it explains a decline as massive as what we’re seeing.


Regarding the people who left your system because they were angry at you, you likely have them seared into your memory not because they’re a large group of people, but because they were a loud group of people.


Loud does not equal large.

And it’s probably not nearly half as large a population as you are imagining. There’s something deeper going on here.


Another recurrent line many campus leaders have echoed lately is that public education (K-12 and Higher Ed) is the subject of a lot of scorn.


When you study what’s happening in the rest of the world or throughout history, what’s happening in the West is hardly coercion. A loss of privilege is not coercion.


Do some people have an axe to grind with their local schools? Sure…and sometimes with good reason. Just witness the rise of unconventional educational alternatives.


But that’s likely still a small minority of the people who disappeared from your campus during the pandemic, despite what you read in the comment section on the Internet.


Double click on that and you’ll see that while the online world can be a hostile place, the real world is a lot less polarized.


While that may come as a shock, recent research suggests that the online world distorts how divided we are. In other words, if you talk to most people, they’re somewhere in the middle.


And when it comes to people who stopped attending your in-person learning, they don’t despise your system. They just don’t think about it much.


Just because ten people wrote you nasty emails doesn’t mean that everyone left because they dislike you or your system.


Many People Didn’t Really Leave Your System. They Just Stopped Coming.

So, if it is indifference, what’s going on?


Here’s the strangest part.


If you talk to a lot of people who no longer attend in-person learning and are currently occasional online participants, they’ll tell you they’re still a part of your learning community.


Dissect that a little further and here’s what you’ll probably find. Most people didn’t leave. They just stopped coming.


I know that makes no logical sense, but maybe that’s how they see it.


That’s what indifference does—you stop coming, but you never really think of yourself as having left.


It’s the friendship that gradually drifts into ‘yeah, that’s right, we used to hang out all the time, but I guess not anymore.’ You’re not enemies by any stretch. You just drifted apart.


Weird, isn’t it?


But that’s indifference.


People Grow Indifferent When They Don’t See Value

Indifference works like this: You become indifferent to people and things when you no longer see value in them.

It’s just not significant enough for you to carve out time for it anymore.


If this is indeed what’s happening with campus attendance, the verdict is as sobering as it is disappointing.


People didn’t see value in on-campus attendance, so, with the catalyst of a few months or longer off, they dropped it.


It’s easy to push back and argue that people should see their education as something that adds significant value. That’s true. Except we’re not talking about learning as much as we are about face-to-face learning.


Maybe your people haven’t bailed on the principle or the idea of education merely as much as they’ve left the current expression of learning.


So, what do you do about that?


The Antidote to Indifference is Passion

The hardest part about indifference is that it engenders neither love nor hate.


It’s more like a shrug that grows into obliviousness. There’s just not a strong well of emotions when it comes to indifference.


The antidote to indifference, then, is passion.


You are never indifferent to things you’re passionate about.


And this is where some further hard news kicks in and ultimately some great news.


First, the hard news, then some much better news.


What Are You (Honestly) Passionate About? People Coming To Your Actual Classroom…Or The Mission Of Your System? 

This is a moment when it’s critical for leaders to get honest with themselves.


Your misdirected passion as a campus leader can misdirect your team and organization’s passion.

As goes the leader, so goes the team.


To that end, if you started to explore the dark underbelly of why campus superintendents and presidents want to get everyone back in their classrooms, you might discover that these leaders:


  • Don’t like seeing empty rooms
  • Want to see their parking lots full
  • Rave about campus life and the traditions found on their campuses


I know that’s a superficial assessment, and your motives are far more nuanced than that, but as a district and campus leader for several decades, I get the emotion here.


Perhaps the key to the future isn’t to just create all the sights, sounds, and “good feels” that we have all come to treasure.

Maybe it’s less about getting excited about pressing “re-set” and being more excited about the mission and what all this mess now makes possible.


Here is another sobering fact that campus leaders must face as the future arrives. Are you ready for this?

The mission of the system gets accomplished as well or better outside the campus walls than it does inside them.

As a result, heading into a hybrid, digital, decentralized future, maybe it’s time to start thinking beyond the building.


Start Thinking Beyond Your Buildings

Historically, the whole system of education has wagered almost everything on gathering people in buildings.

Buildings will be around for decades to come, and I believe it is great when people gather together.


But if your system is going to realize its full mission, your campus buildings will have to stop being the epicenter of your mission.

In the future, if preparing for a prosperous society means coming to your campus, in a set building, with a set faculty member, at a set hour, you need a new strategy.


The easiest way to think about this is the same way instructional leaders have thought about study groups for the last 25 years.

No campus leader today feels threatened by the idea that thousands of learners will be meeting in their homes, coffee shops, or other community places to connect with other learners. The system does spur learning without it actually happening in a centralized facility.


This is where the potential for a distributed learning model starts to move in a new direction.


Many people who are indifferent about driving to your buildings (perhaps) aren’t indifferent to your mission. Leaders who are willing to go to them will be far more effective (and profitable) than leaders who continue to expect people to come to them.

The good news is that decentralized learning scales in a way that centralized education doesn’t. It costs less and can produce far more.


A Renewed Mission and a Brighter Future

It stinks to realize you’re battling indifference and so are your colleagues. And it’s not fun to have your ideals and biases challenged...But I'm not sorry.


I know from experience that as my ideals become exposed and my insecurities get unmasked, I become a better leader.

So, if the best way to battle indifference is to fuel someone’s passion level, perhaps one path forward is to get people more passionate about the MISSION of your campus than the tactical METHODS of delivery.


If your only winning method is having everyone attending class on-site and this strategy is bringing diminishing enrollment returns year after year, perhaps refocusing on the overall mission of the campus is a better direction.


The mission of your system can be accomplished in your buildings, in their homes, in workplaces, in your community, and literally across the globe.


Moving from a system that defaults to in-person learning to a campus that connects and equips learning anytime and anywhere can renew a community passion that might be flickering out. And in the process, it might renew yours as well.

Sometimes the best way to solve a problem is to name the problem. I hope this helps name a problem and perhaps point the way toward a solution.


Leading Your Mission Forward Can Feel Like A Mystery. It Doesn’t Have To.

Leading your organization forward can feel like a mystery. Although every growing system experiences growing pains, being equipped to respond to those challenges – structurally and culturally – is what sets apart a thriving mission from one that’s stuck and hoping for more relief.


P.S. Whenever you are ready here are the 2 best ways I can help you:


1) Get your FREE guide: 5 Evidence-Based Practices to Reclaim More Team Engagement with Less Effort: www.higherperformancegroup.com/reclaim


2) Schedule a Call. Let’s talk about the obstacles (and opportunities) that you & your team are currently facing.  www.higherperformancegroup.com/schedule

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THE APPLICATION: YOUR CONTROL AUDIT Here's what to do Monday morning (assuming you're not in crisis mode — in which case, bookmark this and do it Tuesday): STEP 1: RUN THE COMPLAINT AUDIT (45 minutes across two meetings) Have someone track — with timestamps — time spent on controllable vs. uncontrollable variables. Three columns. Tally the minutes. Calculate the annual cost using Marcus's formula. Then ask your cabinet Mark's question: "Are we okay with this?" Don't editorialize. Don't present solutions. Just hold the data up to the light and let the room sit in it. What this reveals: if uncontrollable discussion outnumbers controllable action 3-to-1, you have a learned helplessness crisis, not a strategy problem. And if nobody wants to track this in the first place — your team already knows what the numbers will say. STEP 2: RUN THE CONTEXT EXCUSE INVENTORY (30 minutes) Put this question on your next cabinet agenda: "What would have to be true for us to succeed despite our constraints?" Have each person list the three constraints they cite most frequently, then — this is the part that matters — what they would do differently if those constraints never changed. Go around the room. Read answers out loud. Watch what happens when every "if only..." statement reveals a corresponding "but we could..." action that's been sitting right next to it, ignored. If answers keep pointing to external changes needed, you're waiting for rescue. If someone says, "There's nothing we can do until X changes," they've adopted learned helplessness as a professional identity. That's a different conversation, but a necessary one. STEP 3: THE 30-DAY CONTROLLABLE SPRINT (Ongoing) For 30 days, 80% of cabinet meeting time covers variables your team directly controls. Track two numbers weekly: Complaint Ratio: Uncontrollable discussion ÷ Controllable action time Implementation Velocity: Days from decision to execution start After 30 days, measure whether the ratios moved. If they didn't, someone on your team is invested in the current story — and that's worth a very direct conversation. OBJECTION: "We don't have time for this" You're currently spending 245 hours per year generating helplessness. You're underwater BECAUSE your team invests energy in uncontrollables, not despite it. What feels like "we're too busy" is almost always "we're afraid of what the data will reveal." OBJECTION: "My board keeps demanding answers about uncontrollables" Your board is asking about uncontrollables because you haven't given them confidence in your controllables. Boards don't micromanage competence. They micromanage uncertainty. When you shift from "here's why we can't..." to "here's what we're doing about what we CAN control," the temperature in the room changes. Your board is paying you to exercise agency — not to be a sophisticated narrator of external circumstances. Which of these objections is your system's default? Drop it in the comments. THE MATURITY SHIFT Immature leaders think: "If only our context were different, we could succeed." Mature leaders think: "What can we control that creates success despite our context?" Immature leaders collect constraints like Pokemon cards — gotta catalog 'em all, display them in meetings, occasionally take them out to admire how impossible everything is. Mature leaders acknowledge constraints once, then obsessively focus on controllable variables. Immature leaders wait for circumstances to improve. Mature leaders improve their response to circumstances. The difference is the difference between a superintendent who survives until retirement and a superintendent whose district becomes the model everyone else studies. One explains to the board why demographic shifts make growth impossible. One shows the board enrollment growth data despite demographic shifts. The Three P's aren't permanent. The lever might not have worked yesterday. But the fence is gone. You can hop off the mat anytime you choose. Your turn: what's one constraint you've been citing for the past year that — if you're honest — you've been using as an excuse to avoid action on controllable variables? Drop it in the comments. Naming it is the first step past it. Tag a cabinet member who's ready to make this shift. Or screenshot this and text it to your CFO with the message: "We're spending 4.7 hours complaining. Let's calculate our actual number Tuesday." IF YOU'RE TIRED OF TRANSLATING INSIGHTS ALONE You just diagnosed the gap — a cabinet spending a quarter million dollars annually on variables no one in the room can change, while the controllable levers sit untouched. That pattern is the symptom. The cause is operating at 60% capacity while funding 100%. Research shows that most leadership teams perform at only 60% of their potential — not because they lack talent, but because brilliant individuals never learned to multiply their intelligence together. If your cabinet costs $1M annually, the 40% gap represents $400K in annual burn. When 100% workload hits 60% capacity, you rotate through three bad options: Lower Standards Burnout Public Failure Most teams cycle through all three while the market decides. The problem isn't your people. It's the model. You're trying to multiply intelligence using addition. Multiplication requires a different system. THE TEAM INSTITUTE: 8 Months From Helplessness to Agency The TEAM INSTITUTE is a sequential developmental journey that transforms your cabinet from individually brilliant to collectively unstoppable — not through episodic workshops forgotten in 30 days, but through capability building applied directly to your actual challenges. Month 1: Base Camp — Team Profile and {BEST FIT} framework Month 2: Building Trust — The foundation that makes honest problem-solving possible Month 3: Empowerment — Distributing authority over controllable variables Month 4: Collaboration — Multiplying intelligence instead of fragmenting it Month 5: Broadening Influence — Leading beyond positional authority Month 6: Managing Change — Transformation without casualties Month 7: Managing Conflict — Using friction as refinement Month 8: Developing Others — Multiplying agency across your organization Each 2-hour monthly session builds on the previous foundation. You can't skip trust and jump to empowerment — that's abandonment, not leadership. What's Included: Team {BEST FIT} assessment and mapping. Team 360 baseline and follow-up. Type-specific protocols for your team's configuration. Monthly expert facilitation on your actual challenges. Between-session accountability. Executive coaching for senior leaders. The Results: 3x performance improvement. 29% higher engagement. 27% better organizational outcomes. Zero burnout increase. The Requirement: Full leadership team participation. Partial engagement produces partial results. If you're ready to stop explaining why things are impossible and start demonstrating what's controllable — let's talk. Schedule a 30-minute consultation to explore whether The Team Institute is the right intervention for your context. We'll discuss your team's current patterns, explore readiness, and determine whether this produces the systematic agency your institution requires. This isn't a sales pitch. It's a conversation between people who refuse to accept that learned helplessness is permanent. [LEARN MORE] [SCHEDULE CONSULTATION]  FOUND VALUE IN THIS? Help other educational leaders discover it: → Repost with your calculated complaint tax — 4.7 hours × your team size × 42 weeks × hourly rate. Drop your number. → Tag a leader who's paying the learned helplessness tax right now → Comment with the constraint you've been using as an excuse — your honesty helps others feel less alone. The more leaders who shift from learned helplessness to ridiculous agency, the better our educational systems become. Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group for weekly Team Intelligence insights.
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